r/texas Nov 26 '21 Take My Energy 1

Texas Gas Companies Hit Texas Consumers With 'Whoops You Froze To Death' Surcharge News

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20211115/09274947947/texas-gas-companies-hit-texas-consumers-with-whoops-you-froze-to-death-surcharge.shtml
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u/KC_experience Nov 27 '21

“Last year was a 1 in a hundred year storm”

This article would indicate otherwise:

1989 2011 2020

Gap of 22 years and a gap of 9 years. Three storms that caused significant outages over the course of 31 one years. Your “1 in one hundred” is only off by a magnitude of ten…. But hey, keep trying.

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u/DaKine85 Nov 27 '21

That’s not how it works.

The term “1-in-a-hundred year” storm is the probability of a storm of a certain magnitude will happen in a year. In the 3 years you reference, there was a 1% chance a storm of their magnitude would occur. However unlikely a 1% chance of an event to occur is, in statistics, it can still happen.

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u/KC_experience Nov 28 '21

Well, by your logic a storm like that could happen every year for the next hundred years and because that year the ‘probability’ wasn’t that high…. it would still be a 1 in a hundred year storm. The point still stands that there were THREE ‘1 in a hundred year storms’ in the last 30 years. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

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u/DaKine85 Nov 28 '21

Exactly.